Cherniak off politics

This is my last post on politics. After almost four years of blogging, I have decided that I have had enough. When I started, I was about to start articling at a major Toronto law firm and I was moving up in the Liberal Party. I've continued to move up in the party, but I also know that too many people see me as a blogger first. I believe it is no different than appearing on TV as a spokesperson, but what I believe does not matter. Reality is reality and I am now convinced that I can do more for the Liberal Party behind the scenes than I can online. Meanwhile, I think it is in my best financial interests to focus on my law practice. However, I cannot leave without making a few observations on tonight's election.

I've really enjoyed blogging during this election. I was profiled briefly on the National and did more interviews than ever before. Despite what some people may believe, I got out the message that the campaign wanted and I did it well. I don't believe blogs have the ability to make a real difference in Canadian politics as long as there is so little money in the system, but how many people can say that they got on national television talking about a potential scandal surrounding a national party leader? I had my time in the spotlight and that is enough for this 29-year old. Maybe when I'm older and wiser I will be fortunate enough to return to the public spotlight.

I am also quite pleased with the results in Richmond Hill. I ran my first campaign and Bryon Wilfert came in with 47%. It is less than the 53% of last time, but compared to Liberal losses in the surrounding ridings of Oak Ridges and Thornhill, I cannot help thinking that we ran a damn good local campaign. While I am happy to take some credit, we could never have done it without the many volunteers who came to the office day in and day out to knock on doors, call phone numbers, put up signs and pull the vote. We kept the Conservatives at bay despite a Chinese candidate in a riding with 30% Chinese voters, but the Greens and NDP ate into our lead.

That is really the story of the night in my opinion. Stephen Harper barely increased the Conservative vote, yet he elected 20 more MPs. That did not happen because he is beloved by Ontarians. It happened because the Liberals lost some of their competitive edge when people voted NDP and Green in ridings where only the Liberals and Conservatives had a chance of winning.

Come in here,
dear boy,
have a cigar.
You're gonna go far.
How do we stop this? As I predicted at the beginning of the campaign, Jack Layton spent $18 million to barely increase his party's vote count. I was wrong to think he would drop the charade of becoming prime minister, but I was not wrong about the financial implications. With 2/3 of the Liberal vote, the NDP is bound to be in debt by somewhere in the neighbourhood of 150% of the Liberals after this election. Many New Democrats will be happy with the increased seat count, but the reality is that the NDP leaves this election with less ability to run another one than the Liberals.

That leads me to what I think may become Stephane Dion's real legacy. He needs to have a serious talk with Jack Layton about working together. I don't mean a coalition, because I do think Stephen Harper won enough seats to form a government. I mean that the Liberals and NDP need to agree to start working together in the popular vote so that the Conservatives do not keep coming up on the right. Perhaps the two parties need to join together to bring in electoral reform as their compromise position. They could even start with a short lived coalition government that proposes such a change, but loses the vote with the BQ and Conservatives ganging up. Another option is to do what the Canadian Alliance did and form a new Progressive Liberal Party. I'm not sure what the right answer is and I will have these sorts of discussions in private from now on. However, I do believe that such a bold maneuver is Mr. Dion's best hope to make his mark on Canadian politics.

But I do not give up on Stéphane Dion. I wrote my post yesterday with the knowledge that it would be my second last blog and I wanted it to live beyond the election. Looking at the results, I have to admit that I expected more from Ontario. However, I also cannot help recognizing the reality that if the NDP, Greens and Liberals had worked together, then things could have been very different. I also still believe that as leader, Mr. Dion actually saved the Liberal campaign in the debates. In Quebec, we have rebuilt and are now competing with the Conservatives again in French Canada. It is ironic when you consider that the Quebec caucus has been Mr. Dion's greatest headache. Our Quebec numbers were Mr. Dion's doing and the party now has to build on this to bring back a Liberal organization across the province.

You're gonna fly high,
You're never gonna die,
You're gonna make it if you try;
They're gonna love you.
Of course, though, I know that many others have different opinions. I cannot blame them, because the results are obviously not what Liberals hoped for. All I can hope is that they seriously consider whether our numbers would have been substantially better under another leader. I also ask them to consider whether Mr. Dion would still be a compromise choice between two strong but flawed alternatives. Further, I hope they ask themselves whether we can afford to spend $3 million on a leadership race when Mr. Harper is likely to call another election a month or two after it ends. At the very least, let's not put up with 11 candidates all trying to raise money at the same time. Perhaps we need to rebuild with the leader we have and hope that the spark of popularity lit during the leadership debates is on a long fuse.

I don't know what is going to happen. All I know for sure is that I am, from now on, going to keep my opinions private. I'm going to talk to other back-room Liberals and try to sway them, but I will no longer take the risk of making enemies by being too honest in public. I have immensely enjoyed my time as a blogger and I would never give up the memories. I appreciate all the readers and positive feedback from commenters, politicians, Liberals and journalists. However, I have a life to live and I have come to the conclusion that I cannot live it in public unless I have a job that pays me to live in public. The existing blog will stay up because I need positive results in google searches and am proud of what I have written, but I will soon be directing readers to my legal website. That is going to be my life for the foreseeable future.

The case for Stéphane Dion

I am a Dion Liberal. I have been since some time during the summer of 2006. I cannot really point to the moment that it happened, but it did happen and I have only been reinforced in my views. That may make me biased, but consider the following. My father is a developer of large housing developments in the GTA. My grandfather was a housing developer around the world in the 1950s, 60s and 70s. I support the Ontario Municipal Board and have no time for elected politicians ignoring science and planning principles. Before supporting Mr. Dion, I never considered myself an environmentalist. Yet here I am, calling myself a Dion Liberal. If I am biased, it is for the most sincere reasons.

Mr. Dion is an honest man in a dishonest profession. He tells people what he really believes and defends unpopular sentiments. Whether fighting against Lucien Bouchard for the Clarity Act or fighting for the Green Shift against just about every political strategist in every political party, Mr. Dion does what he believes to be the right thing. This is not always good, because politicians like George Bush fight for what they believe, even when they are wrong. However, that is not Mr. Dion's problem. Quite the contrary, the Clarity Act was backed up by the Supreme Court of Canada while the Green Shift has been endorsed by just about every economist and environmentalist who is not trying to maintain an air of impartiality or partisanship for another political party. Mr. Dion fights for what is right, even when it is unpopular.

On the basis of the same examples, it is clear that Stéphane Dion is an extremely intelligent man. When he makes a decision, he tends to make the right decision for the long-term. He foresaw that the environment would become the major political issue of the next election. You might say that the economy took over, but do not forget that it is the 10% vote to the Green Party that has really hampered Liberal fortunes. If Mr. Dion or some other Liberal leader did not have green credibility, who knows how low the Liberal Party might have sunk in the polls? It was Stéphane Dion who dragged the Liberal Party into the new, green age of politics. He read the mood of the country and he got it right.

During the election, the economy did take precedence. Some will argue that if it were not for the Green Shift, the Liberals would have had a cake walk. Really? Without the Green Shift, would right-wing economists like Jack Mintz be supporting Mr. Dion's economic plan? Would David Suzuki have mused about the Green Party disappearing for the good of the green movement? Would Elizabeth May have said to vote Liberal in close ridings where Liberals can beat Conservatives? Would Canadians have ever had any sense of a unique Liberal policy? For all its faults and bad roll-out, I believe that the Green Shift was an inspired choice for this election

Beyond that, Mr. Dion was the first party leader to begin taking the economy seriously. Stephen Harper might have called for the debate to spend on hour on the economy, but it was Dion who came forward with a five-point plan and showed Canadians that he understood their feelings. It was Mr. Dion who came out of the debates with wind in his sails. It was Mr. Dion who brought the Liberals from under 20% in Quebec to almost 30% following the French debates. The final results may not be as good as the Liberal numbers in the first week of October, but can Mr. Dion be faulted if the campaign or Liberal organization were unable to hold onto the gains that he gave them in his one chance to speak directly to Canadians?

But maybe the problem was not the campaign. Maybe the problem was Mr. Dion's performance as leader of the opposition and he cannot get past it. However, look at the reality. A week before Stephen Harper started calling for an election, the Liberals were in the lead following Mr. Dion's summer tour. Mr. Dion's negative image can be directly linked to the Conservative smear campaign that started months after the Liberal leadership convention. Was Mr. Dion responsible for the Liberal Party's lack of money at that time? Was he responsible for the fact that Liberals donated almost $2 million in the past two years to pay off leadership debts instead of giving the money to the Liberal Party? Is Mr. Dion responsible for Jack Layton's decision to throw $18 million dollars into this election for the first time in NDP history? Is he responsible for Stephen Harper's multi-million dollar sweater vest campaign before the election began? If you look at what was actually in Mr. Dion's control, I am not convinced that anybody else could have done substantially better.

Perhaps most importantly, Mr. Dion has finally healed Liberal divisions from the 1990s. Last week, he appeared on stage with Paul Martin, Sheila Copps and Jean Chretien. They all supported him and called on Canadians to vote Liberal. Indeed, Messrs. Martin and Chretien both mentioned each other positively in their speeches. When part of Mr. Martin's autobiography was leaked, only Warren Kinsella blinked an eye in public. Perhaps the two former prime ministers will always dislike each other, but the same can be said about many politicians within many political parties. What matters is that when all the chips were on the table, Stéphane Dion was able to play the hand well and get every Liberal who really mattered playing his game. Who else could have done that?

This is not a defence of Mr. Dion's leadership for some sort of race following the election. I am quite confident that Stéphane Dion will lead the Liberals in the next election, win, lose or coalition. This is a defence of Mr. Dion's leadership for the election tomorrow. My point is that Mr. Dion is not just a leader, but a great leader. He has done everything a leader of the Liberal Party could have done to win this election. In my view, he has proven that he is the best man to be prime minister of Canada. I know that many Canadians disagree, but I also believe that they are wrong and they hold these wrong views for lack of information. Further, I believe that many of them will vote Liberal despite their hesitations and, following the election, they will learn to appreciate Mr. Dion more than they currently do. Like Dalton McGuinty, I believe Mr. Dion will become the person who everybody appreciates despite first impressions.

What do we make of those first impressions? Does anybody who has talked to Stéphane Dion really believe that he does not speak English? Does anybody who understands economics or the environment really believe that the Green Shift is a bad idea? Does anybody who supports federalism and understands the Supreme Court Reference Re Secession really believe that the Clarity Act is a bad thing on a policy level, without getting into the politics of it? Does anybody who understands government and knows Mr. Dion's work as a minister really believe that Stéphane Dion would be a bad prime minister? Does anybody who knows Mr. Dion really believe that he is too weak to be a leader? Sure his English is not always clear, but that did not stop Jean Chretien from being a great prime minister. Is clarity of accent really an issue on which any modern, intelligent Canadian should base his or her vote? Do any of Mr. Dion's perceived negatives actually withstand scrutiny?

This election is about only two options. A Liberal prime minister or a Conservative prime minister. Stéphane Dion has made his case and he deserves to win. When you consider that he is fighting against a Conservative media, it is incredible that he has remained within striking distance. When the media analysis of this election is complete, I suspect we will find that Jack Layton was given far more positive coverage than Mr. Dion, only making his job even harder. With all the odds stacked against him, Stéphane Dion has held strong and proven his worth. Stéphane Dion deserves to be prime minister and we deserve to have him lead our great country.

Vote red, go green

I partly agree with Pierre Bourque. Elizabeth May has told her supporters to vote Liberal in ridings where Liberals can win. I also disagree, though, because I don't think this is scandalous. Quite the opposite, I think it is sign that potential Green voters should listen to Elizabeth May and vote for the environment.

When your leader tells you to vote for another party, you have got to know that she is damned serious.

Peter Kent strikes again

I predict that Susan Kadis will win on Tuesday. Mr. Kent will likely not get a third chance.

First, he calls for private health care and forces Stephen Harper to respond.

Then:

TORONTO, Oct. 12, 2008 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX)

-- Peter Kent, Conservative Candidate for the Thornhill, Ontario riding and former journalist has produced a video which includes appearances by notable Canadian journalists including Pamela Wallin and CTV News' Lloyd Robertson. These taped appearances by Ms. Wallin and Mr. Robertson were made over two years ago for a broadcast industry event.

CTV would like to clarify that neither Ms. Wallin, Mr. Robertson nor CTV News have in any way publicly endorsed Mr. Kent, the Conservative Party of Canada or any other political party or candidate.

<<>>

I'm sad to report that Kady O'Malley beat me to this. I thought I had an exclusive for a while.

I'm about to go on air

From 4:30 - 5, I will be on the Roy Green Show with Stephen Taylor on AM 640.

Apparently I've been bumped for Stephen Harper. Hopefully there will still be time for my segment.

May finally says to vote strategically

Further to the post below:

The Canadian Press - Broadcast wire
Oct 12, 2008 14:52

HALIFAX - Green Leader Elizabeth May says `there's no question' that there are some ridings where voters should vote either NDP or Liberal to avoid a Conservative win.

With just two days until the federal election, May says there are `maybe 20 per cent' of the 308 ridings in the country where Green voters may wish to vote strategically.

That's about 60 seats.

May told The Canadian Press she can't be specific about where the seats are, although three Nobel Prize-winning climate change scientists are specifically urging Green voters to defeat Conservatives in 50 close Ontario seats that could decide the election.

May says in the vast majority of ridings, especially those where Green candidates have a chance of winning, Green voters should remain loyal to the party.

At the outset of the campaign, May was criticized by some members of her party for not stating categorically that Green voters should stick with their party regardless of possible outcomes.

(The Canadian Press)

Harper goofs in French

Once again, Stephen Harper has proven that it is normal to slip up in your second language. Today, he claimed that the Conservative Government has saved Canadian families $300,000 on average. It's not a big deal, except to the extent that it proves that Mr. Dion's one interview retake is irrelevant.

Why you should vote strategically

This campaign has had many ups and downs. Two weeks before Stephen Harper started talking about an election, the Liberals were ahead of the Conservatives in the polls. This followed a summer in which Stéphane Dion toured the country and became the only politician regularly showing up on people's TV screens. Stephen Harper got scared, so he decided to call an election on a whim. It did not matter that it would break one of the centrepiece laws of his administration and result in wasted resources for Canadians in four by-elections called by Mr. Harper. What mattered was that Stephen Harper was scared.

In the week before the election was called, Mr. Harper spent millions of dollars to show Canadians that he wears a sweater vest and cares about his family. He was compared to Uncle Louie and his numbers skyrocketed because no other party was able to respond. Going into the election, Mr. Harper had already turned a bare deficit into a reasonable lead.

In the first week, the Liberals tried to introduce Stéphane Dion to Canadians. They launched a series of websites and brought Mr. Dion to small crowds. Meanwhile, Stephen Harper spoke in closed rooms to reporters while his war room made fools out of themselves. Jack Layton began with the claim that he was running to be prime minister and Elizabeth May focused on nothing other than getting herself into the debates. By the end of the first week, Stephen Harper was still on the rise, the Liberals seemed to be getting closer and the NDP was beginning to gain steam.

The second week was not much different. The Liberals continued to focus on small key events while the Conservatives were plagued by bad headlines. This time, however, it was the fault of Gerry Ritz. Still, the NDP continued to rise in popularity. By September 21, the NDP had hit it's peak, Conservatives had fallen below 35% for the first time and the Liberals seemed to be on a serious rise.

However, week three was completely different. The Conservatives and Greens shot back up at the expense of the Liberals while the NDP remained steady. I believe this is because the Liberal campaign made the mistake, for the third time in a row, of assuming that nobody was paying attention. Most Canadians were seeing Conservative and NDP commercials while the Liberals had little other than the media's interpretation of events, which as biased against Mr. Dion. By the end of the third week, it actually looked like Stephen Harper might gain a majority government.

What we did not know at the time was that the Conservatives and Greens had reached their peaks. The economy started to become the real news and all the campaigns put it first. Then Stephen Harper lost Quebec by making fun of artists. Next, the Liberals hit with their first real strike as Bob Rae shocked a crowd with Stephen Harper's plagiarized speech. Soon afterward, Stéphane Dion won the French debate. The next night, Stephen Harper lost the English debate when he claimed that Canadians are not worried about their jobs and mortgages. In a span of a few days, the Liberals and BQ were edging up while the Conservatives were sliding down fast. Going into the final week, it seemed like we could have a Parliament with the Liberals and Conservatives within ten seats of each other.

But during that final week, the NDP started spending millions of dollars on commercials. The Greens also began running commercials. For some reason, the media decided that they had no interest in reporting Stéphane Dion as a potential prime minister. Going into Thanksgiving weekend, the NDP and Greens were both rising at the expense of the Liberals. Even though the Tories failed to stem the tide, it seemed that the anti-Tory vote might split three ways and save Stephen Harper's government.

That is where we stand today. The Conservatives are preferred by somewhere around 1/3 of Canadians, yet the other two-thirds cannot agree who should replace them. As a result, Mr. Harper may hold onto his lead despite an overwhelming agreement that he is the worst choice. With 28% of the vote, the Liberals could have somewhere between 85 - 100 seats. With its increase from 18% to 21%, the NDP may conceivably win 10 new seats. The Greens will be lucky to get one seat for their 10%. Meanwhile, Stephen Harper would still be over 120. Is that what those 66% of Canadians who do not like Stephen Harper really want?

Jack Layton has run a good campaign. There is no doubt about it. However, the fact of the matter is that he will not be prime minister. Even Ed Broadbent all but admitted that last week. The Green Party is full of idealistic people who believe in their cause, but in many ridings their votes will only ensure that Conservative beat Liberals. Blinded by idealism, they would get the opposite of what they want. The only person smiling at these results will be Stephen Harper.

It is time for progressive voters to unite. If they will not unite behind the Liberal Party on a national scale, then they should unite behind the local candidate most likely to beat the Conservative candidate. The best way to know how to vote in your riding is to look at http://voteforenvironment.ca/. Yes the Liberal party will gain the most from this, but that is because the Liberal Party is - like or not - the only party that is capable of replacing Stephen Harper in today's Canada. Maybe the NDP or Greens will have a chance one day. Maybe all of the progressive parties will unite in time for the next election. Who knows what will happen in the future?

However, we live in today. We vote in today. On October 14, use your brain and vote for the person most likely to beat your local Conservative. It is the only way to get rid of Stephen Harper and that has to be our first priority.

RCMP raid Conservative Party Headquarters

The video is finally released!

Vote on Valentine's Day

I knew Stephen Harper was using a Rovian strategy to suppress voter turnout, but telling Canadians to vote 4 months after the election? :)



Obviously, this is completely meaningless. The only point of the link is to remind people that if Dion had done it, Harper would have delayed his plane to declare that this is evidence that Dion is not a leader.

On CBC again

I think I did pretty good in this CBC interview.

Please note Conservative Stephen Taylor's words: "We see Liberal momentum rising in these final days."

Let's keep it going!

Live blogging Dion and Chretien

I'm in Brampton writing live, but you won't be able to read this until I get somewhere that my blackberry is not blocked. On the night that we learn Stephen Harper's own expert found that the Cadman tape is reliable, I suspect that the duo of former and soon to be prime minister will have a field day in front of this crowd of 1000.

First, though, we had a big surprise with Sheila Copps starting things off. I saw the Liberal candidates from Hamilton on stage behind her and I couldn't help thinking that this may win them their seats.

It was great to hear from Jean Chrétien, who I have only seen live a few times. He speaks in a style where just about every line requires applause, so it builds up the crowd and keeps attention. On Harper: "He told Canadians to buy... on Tuesday. Canadians will say bye bye Stephen Harper".

Dion's speech was stellar. I've been following him closely since the spring of 2006, but this was a completely different man. Dion had the good argument like always, but this time he delivered it line after line. Mr. Dion may still think in paragraphs, but he has learned how to speak in sentences. I am quite confident that this man could beat Harper on the stump any day of the week.

The most important part of the speech is when Mr. Dion made the direct appeal to non-Liberal progressive voters. "A vote for Jack Layton will only save one job - Stephen Harper's". "Outside Central Nova, go green - vote red!"

The end was dynamite. When Stéphane Dion talked about why he entered politics, to keep the country together, you could tangibly feel the emotion in the room. "When you have a country like this one, you have hope in your hands."

Rallies like this really pump you up. I feel sorry for all the Conservatives who can only see their leader on television.
Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

Friday Franks

1) Mr. Murphy, if you wanted to know what Mr. Dion would do as prime minister starting now, why did you ask what he "would have done", in the past-tense?

2) Mr. Harper, if you were asked that same question now, how would you have answered it two and a half years ago?

3) Mr. Harper, if you were asked that same question in French, how would you have answered it in English?

4) Mr. Chretien, if you were asked that same question now, how would you have answered exactly fifteen years ago?

5) Average Canadian, if you currently own stocks, how much would you have cared about this story?

6) Ms. Campbell, if you were Stephen Harper now, would you have fired John Tory as your campaign manager?

7) This is all so silly. People ask for clarification on questions all the time. I'm sure Harper himself has done it during this election. I hope some media outlet decides to show that before Tuesday.

Dion prefers clarity

"If the question were clear now, how would you have answered it then?"

My answer is, if the question were clear now, then it would be a different question.

If the separatists ever win again, maybe they will hire Steve Murphy to write their referendum question.

"If you were premier of a sovereign Quebec now, how would you have voted in the referendum?"

This is leadership

Tomorrow, there will be a huge rally for Stéphane Dion in Brampton. He will be introduced by Jean Chrétien. Clearly, all Liberals are now singing from the same book.

Who else could be introduced by Paul Martin one day, then Jean Chrétien the next? Real leaders bring people together. That is what defines Stéphane Dion.

UPDATE

Meanwhile, Reid Scott, one of Jack Layton's predecessors as NDP MP in Danforth has quit the NDP to join the Liberal Party:

“Mr. Layton is a pure opportunist. One minute he’s in left field talking about the poor, the next minute he’s making a deal with Harper to prop him up. I think he’s mainly interested in personal self-aggrandizement,” he said.

Goodbye Harper

Yes, I am predicting a bare Liberal minority, as I did at the beginning of the election. However, I also know that this is not yet written. We all need to work as hard as we can and we may still just barely miss the prize. Barely win or barely lose, though, there is one thing of which I am certain. This is Stephen Harper's last election.

I've actually been making this argument for some time now. Stephen Harper is about to finish his third election as a national party leader. At this time, he has won one and lost one. If trends continue, he is about to show that his first win was the peak of his abilities. Are Conservatives going to risk giving him a fourth try when the trend is in the wrong direction?

Some might argue that as long as Mr. Harper is prime minister, he is untouchable. However, if Jean Chretien couldn't hold on after three majority wins, how could Harper survive? The guy raised a lot of money, but he spent it all. Then he spent an entire election telling leading Conservatives across the country to shut up and leave the show to him. In the final weeks of the campaign, he has been reduced to a mean, uncaring man who couldn't even release a platform properly. The guy is being upstaged by Stéphane Dion, who Stephen Harper had convinced other Conservatives to believe to be completely incompetent. What are those same Conservatives to think now that they realize that not only were they mislead, but their leader couldn't even figure it out for himself? How could they ever trust Harper again?

When I think back over my blog posts since the Harper smear campaign against Dion began, I am quite pleased. Many of the predictions I made, that many others thought to be crazy, have turned out to be true. In particular, I note that when Stephen Harper's "not a leader" campaign began, I predicted that it would only work if it was true. For some time, the Conservatives did a very good job of spinning everything as a "leadership" question. However, when Stéphane Dion finally had a chance to speak directly to the people in the debates, he turned things around. Indeed, the speed of the change in momentum is incredible. Canadians don't love Dion, but they are starting to respect him. Harper had his chance to turn things around this week, and his Tuesday speech might have been good enough on it own. However, as I wrote in February 2007, mediocrity only works when you have no opponent.

I doubt that Conservatives will be satisfied with Stephen Harper's mediocrity after this election. They accepted it as long as he was proven right, but Stephen Harper seems to have lost his Stalingrad. From this point on, the troops will be retreating. The only question is whether we can get to Berlin before the war is over. Even if the timing does not quite work, we have proven - even to Conservatives - that the general is no strategist.

(No, this is not a Hitler comparison. If it were, then Dion would be Stalin.)

Live blogging Dion's speech

12:44
- Here is the first M. Martin.

12:45
- Dion's applause are much better than for Harper

12:47
- Start with the economy and national unity. That is the Liberal Party.

12:48
- He's very passionate!

12:49
- "Canadians deserve to see a party platform more than one week before election day"

12:50
- Lots of "worst since 1991".

12:50
- "he's singing that same old song. Don't worry, be happy."

12:52
- "doing nothing, is not an option"

12:53
- "there is no time to waste. We need shovels in the ground."

12:55
"What kind of government attacks its own citizens and its largest province?"

12:56
"He may speak English better than I do, but I speak the truth better in both official langauges than him."

1:01
"It is progressive governments that put economies back on track"

1:02
"We need to change couse, we need to change the captain, we need to change the whole crew."

1:03
"Does Mr. Layton think he will attract investment to Canada by making it more expensive to invest?"

1:12
I got called away for the last few minutes. The office was VERY happy with the speech.

What would a Dion cabinet look like?

As we see the polling numbers move closer and closer, the possibility of a Liberal government rises. Unlike the Conservatives and NDP, we are more than happy to talk about the Liberal team and who might be in cabinet. Indeed, we have so many good people that some capable mangers are likely to be left in the back benches. Nevertheless, here is what I think part of the front bench might look like.

Finance: With the current economic crisis, this is going to be a key role. Mr. Dion will need to fill it with a blue Liberal who has credibility in the financial community. Normally people do not keep their critic jobs in government, but I believe it would be difficult to pick anybody other than John McCallum. Martha Hall-Findlay and Ralph Goodale both have an outside chance.

Environment: I've long thought Michael Ignatieff would be good in this role. Indeed, the whole idea of a Green Shift really originated with his leadership campaign. In a Dion government, environment is going to be a very important ministry and this is a file that Mr. Ignatieff knows very well. I also think he is blue enough that the financial community will not get scared of what he might do. On the other hand, it could be Elizabeth May if she wins her seat. If Dion insists on moving people from their critic portfolios, there is an outside chance that Bryon Wilfert might end up here as the former PS when Dion was the minister.

Foreign Affairs: I think Bob Rae will likely keep hold of this file. He has international experience and is known as a solid negotiator. He is fluent in both official languages and I doubt there would be much complaint from anybody if he is in this role.

Minister of Justice: I've recently realized that there is a surprisingly small number of lawyers running for the Liberals. I am not certain who would get this role, but I think the most likely options are to either return Irwin Cotler or bring in Martha Hall-Findlay. I could see Mr. Cotler taking some sort of human rights ministry, though. I could also see Ms. Hall-Findlay in a financial portfolio. If Christine Innes wins in Trintiy-Spadina, then she could become the lead contender.

Minister of Defence: The current critic, Bryon Wilfert, was Mr. Dion's first caucus supporter. I have worked closely with him for years and I know he has done a good job with the defence portfolio. I suspect that he would keep this role. Marc Garneau or Scott Brison could also fill this portfolio.

Minister of Health: Gerard Kennedy? Mike Savage? Keith Martin? Geoff Regan? There are a whole lot of possibilities here.

Minister of Labour: I suspect that somebody from Quebec will continue to fill this role. I would be looking at Justin Trudeau, because it is a more socially oriented file but somewhat fitting for a new MP. That said, it would not surprise me if Mr. Dion puts Justin in a more junior role for the first term. In that case, Denis Coderre could be the man.

Minister of Industry: Marc Garneau seems like the obvious choice to me. I could also see Ralph Goodale here. A more unexpected choice would be Albina Guarnieri.

Human Resources: This is one of those ministries that is under appreciated, but very important. Ralph Goodale could actually end up here, because we know for certain that he is capable of the work load. I could also see Keith Martin or Marlene Jennings. Now that I think about it, though, Scott Brison would be a very good option.

Indian Affairs: I think Tina Keeper is pretty obvious. However, I could also see Anita Neville here. For some reason, I feel like this role should be filled by a Manitoban.

Natural Resources: This is yet another possibility for Ralph Goodale. It would probably be a smart move to put a westerner here.

I'm going to stop there, because if I go too far than I might insult people for not including them. This is just a small sampling of the ample talent in the Liberal caucus. And now for your confusing video, that may or may not be explained in due course.